Failure of US-Iran talks was all-too predictable – but Trump could still have stuck with diplomacy over strikes

Source: MIL-OSI-Submissions-English

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Nina Srinivasan Rathbun, Professor of International Relations, Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy, University of Toronto; USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

When it came to U.S.-Iran talks, the writing was on the wall. Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Three rounds of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran failed to persuade President Donald Trump that a solution to the two country’s nuclear impasse lay in diplomacy, rather than military action. A perceived lack of progress in the last of those indirect negotiations on Feb 26, 2026, was enough to prompt Trump to green-light a massive onslaught of missiles that has degraded Iran’s offensive capabilities and killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several members of Iran’s senior military leadership.

In response, Tehran has launched strikes across the Middle East, targeting Israel as well as Gulf states that host U.S. airbases. At least three Americans have been killed.

While the scale of the U.S., Israeli and Iranian strikes has taken some observers by surprise, the failure of the talks that led to them was all too predictable.

For diplomacy to be successful, both sides need to agree on the issues subject to negotiation and also believe that peaceful resolution is more valuable than military engagement. This clearly was not the case in the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks of 2025 and 2026.

An arm holds aloft a photo of a man with a long beard.
A demonstrator holds a portrait of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Los Angeles on Feb. 28, 2026.
Qian Weizhong/VCG via Getty Images

As someone who has researched nonproliferation and U.S. national security for two decades and was involved in State Department nuclear diplomacy, I know that even under more favorable conditions, negotiations often fail. And the chances for success in the Iran-U.S. talks were always slim. In fact, publicly stated red lines by both sides were incompatible with each other – meaning negotiations were always likely to fail.

Iran wanted the talks confined only to guarantees about the civilian purpose of its nuclear program, not its missile program, support of regional proxy groups or human rights abuses. Essentially it wanted a return to 2015’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which halted Iran’s development of nuclear technology and stockpiling of nuclear material in exchange for lifting multiple international economic sanctions placed on Iran.

Meanwhile, Trump insisted on limits to Iran’s ballistic missiles and the cutting of Tehran’s support for regional militias. These were not included in the 2015 agreement, with parties ultimately deciding that a nuclear deal was better than the alternative of no deal at all.

False hope

Nevertheless, there had been a slim chance for a breakthrough of late.

While the positions of both the U.S. and Iranian governments had ossified since May 8, 2018 – the date when the first Trump administration withdrew the United States from the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal – there had been some recent movement by Iran, according to former U.S. diplomats involved in negotiations during the Obama and Biden administrations.

With U.S. military building up in the region, Iran appeared more willing to negotiate within the nuclear arena than before. There were plausible solutions to the issue of Iran’s enrichment of uranium capabilities, including maintaining a minimum domestic capacity to develop medical isotopes and a removal of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium necessary to build a nuclear bomb.

There was less openness on other points of contention. Notably, there was no movement on ballistic missiles, which had always been a red line. On the eve of the round of discussions held in Geneva on Feb. 17, Trump stated: “I think they want to make a deal.” Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, noted progress over the “guiding principles” of the talks.

But a lot of this optimism appeared to have dissipated by the time the two sides held another round of talks on Feb. 26. While mediator Oman’s negotiators continued to talk of progress, the U.S. side was noticeably silent. Reporting since has suggested that Trump was displeased with the way the talks had gone, setting the stage for the Feb. 28 attack.

Military brinkmanship

The threat of military action was, of course, a continued backdrop to the talks.

The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group was deployed near Iranian waters in January as a signal of support to the Iranian protesters. The USS Gerald R Ford carrier group joined the buildup before the last round of talks.

Trump warned Iran that “if they don’t make a deal, the consequences are very steep.”

The thinking may have been that Iran, weakened by both the June 2025 U.S.-Israeli strikes and diminished capabilities of Tehran proxies Hamas and Hezbollah, was playing a weak hand in the talks.

Yet Iran also signaled a willingness to engage in military action. In the run-up to the last round of talks, Iran held military exercises and closed the Strait of Hormuz for a live-fire drill. Leaders in Tehran also declared that they would not restrain its response to another attack. The world is seeing that now, with a response that has seen Iran launch missiles across the Middle East and at rival Gulf nations.

Optimism has fallen before

Trump isn’t the first president to fail to secure a nuclear deal, although he is the first to respond to that failure with military action.

The Biden administration publicly pledged to strengthen and renew the Obama-era nuclear deal in 2021. However, Iran had significantly increased its nuclear technical capability during the years that had passed since the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action collapsed. That increased the difficulty – just to return to the previous deal would have required Iran to give up the new technical capability it had achieved for no new benefits.

That window closed in 2022 after Iran removed all of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s surveillance and monitoring under the deal and started enriching uranium to near-weapons levels and stockpiling sufficient amounts for several nuclear weapons. The IAEA, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, maintains only normal safeguards that Iran had agreed to before the plan of action.

Optimism also existed for a short time in spring 2025 during five rounds of indirect talks that preceded the United States bombing Iran’s nuclear infrastructure in June as part of a broader Israeli attack.

A more unstable Middle East

When I worked in multilateral nuclear diplomacy for the U.S. State Department, we saw talks fail in 2009 regarding North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, after six years of on-and-off progress. The consequence of that failure is a more unstable East Asia and renewed interest by South Korea in developing nuclear weapons.

Unfortunately, the same dynamic appears to be playing out in the Middle East.

Military strikes have already killed more than 200 in Iran and across the region. A wider war in the Middle East is a possibility, and should the Iranian regime survive, it may commit to developing nuclear weapons given that the lack of them proved no deterrent to U.S. and Israeli military action.

Talks do not necessarily need an end point – in the shape of a deal – for them to have purpose. Under situations of increased military brinkmanship, talks could have helped the U.S. and Iran step back from the edge, build trust and perhaps develop better political relations – even if an actual deal remained out of reach.

Instead, Trump opted to go a different route.

This article includes sections originally published by The Conversation U.S. on Feb. 17, 2026.

The Conversation

Nina Srinivasan Rathbun does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

ref. Failure of US-Iran talks was all-too predictable – but Trump could still have stuck with diplomacy over strikes – https://theconversation.com/failure-of-us-iran-talks-was-all-too-predictable-but-trump-could-still-have-stuck-with-diplomacy-over-strikes-277209

U.S. EMBASSY AND GOVERNMENT OF SAMOA MARK MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING TO REBUILD SAINA-TOAMUA PRIMARY SCHOOL.

PRESS RELEASE December 17, 2025] – The United States Embassy in Samoa hosted a ceremony today to formally mark the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the United States and the Government of Samoa for the construction of a new Saina-Toamua School. The event was attended by U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Daniel J. Tarapacki and Samoa’s Chief Executive Officer of the Ministry of Education and Culture, Aeau Christopher Hazelman, who both delivered remarks highlighting the urgent need for this initiative.

With more than 600 students currently enrolled, Saina-Toamua Primary School faces significant challenges due to deteriorating facilities. Since May 2024, the U.S. Embassy has worked closely with the Ministry of Education and Culture and the school’s leadership to address these concerns and ensure the safety and well-being of students.

Through funding provided by the U.S. Overseas Humanitarian, Disaster, and Civic Aid program, the United States will support the construction of a new school complex featuring 16 classrooms, a library, a computer lab, a science lab, a principal’s office, a staff room, and separate toilet facilities for students and staff. The project also includes the safe demolition of the existing school, ensuring the new facility meets the highest standards and will serve the community for years to come. The total project cost is estimated at approximately 1.9 million USD.

“This investment reflects our shared belief in the power of education to transform lives and communities,” said Chargé d’Affaires Daniel J. Tarapacki. “By working together, the United States and Samoa are demonstrating our mutual commitment to the future of education and to the well-being of the people of Samoa.”

This project stands as a testament to the enduring friendship between the United States and Samoa, underscoring the values and strong ties that unite both nations. By supporting the Saina-Toamua community, the two countries are not only building a new school; but also strengthening their partnership for the future.

The United States extends its sincere gratitude to the Government of Samoa, the Ministry of Education and Culture, the school principal, and the entire community for their collaboration and trust. The new Saina-Toamua Primary School is expected to become a place of hope, learning, and opportunity for all.

End Release.

US Embassy Apia, Samoa

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PRESENTATION OF CREDENTIALS OF THE AMBASSADOR OF THE REPUBLIC OF POLAND TO THE INDEPENDENT STATE OF SAMOA

His Excellency Patryk Michal Blaszczak presented his Letters of Credence to the Head of State of the Independent State of Samoa, Afioga Tuimaleali’ifano Va’aletoa Sualauvi II, at a Credentials Ceremony held this morning at the Official Residence of the Head of State at Vailele. The presentation formally accredited His Excellency as Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Republic of Poland to Samoa, with residence in Wellington, New Zealand.

Samoa and Poland have enjoyed cordial relations since the establishment of diplomatic ties on 8 March 2012. The two countries continue to engage closely through their shared membership in the United Nations, the OACPS–EU framework, and other international fora on matters of mutual interest, including international peace and security, the promotion of democracy and fundamental human rights, and climate change. Ambassador Błaszczak reaffirmed Poland’s commitment to strengthening the diplomatic partnership between Samoa and Poland, both bilaterally and multilaterally, building on the solid foundation established by his predecessors.

Afioga Tuimaleali‘ifano Va‘aletoa Sualauvi II welcomed the Ambassador and acknowledged the positive development of relations between Samoa and Poland. The Head of State conveyed his congratulations to the Government of Poland on the establishment of an Honorary Consul in Samoa and extended his best wishes to Mr. Anthony Pereira on his appointment as the first Honorary Consul of Poland to Samoa. He expressed confidence that this new representation will further strengthen cooperation and people-to-people ties, and that Ambassador Blaszczak’s tenure will continue to enhance friendship and cooperation between the two countries.

His Excellency Patryk Michał Błaszczak is currently the Ambassador of Poland to New Zealand (since 2025) with concurrent accreditation to Samoa and other Pacific countries. He has held senior diplomatic including Deputy Head of Mission in Copenhagen, Acting Director of the European Policy Department at Poland’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Head of the Political Section at the Polish Embassy in Paris. Ambassador Błaszczak holds a Master’s degree in Applied Linguistics from the University of Warsaw, is fluent in English and French, and is a recipient of the Bronze Cross of Merit of the Republic of Poland.

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PRESENTATION OF CREDENTIALS OF THE AMBASSADOR OF HUNGARY TO THE INDEPENDENT STATE OF SAMOA [THURSDAY 5 FEBRUARY 2026]

His Excellency Dr. Gábor Tamás Nagy presented his Letter of Credence to the Head of State of the Independent State of Samoa, Afioga Tuimaleali’ifano Va’aletoa Sualauvi II, at a Credentials Ceremony held this morning at the Official Residence of the Head of State at Vailele. The presentation formally accredited His Excellency as Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Hungary to Samoa, with residence in Wellington, New Zealand.

Samoa and Hungary have enjoyed cordial relations since the establishment of diplomatic ties on 7 September 2011. Despite the geographical distance between us, we continue to engage through our shared membership in the United Nations, the OACP-EU and other international fora on matters of mutual interest, including peace and security, respect for sovereignty, human rights, and the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Ambassador Nagy reaffirmed Hungary’s commitment to the diplomatic partnership between our two countries in various areas, be it bilateral as well as multilateral formats based on the solid foundation that has already been established by his predecessors.

Afioga Tuimaleali‘ifano Va‘aletoa Sualauvi II welcomed the Ambassador and acknowledged the positive development of relations between Samoa and Hungary. The Head of State conveyed his congratulations to the Government of Hungary on the establishment of an Honorary Consulate in Samoa and extended his best wishes to Afioga Saumalaulu Stefan Szegedi on his appointment as the first Honorary Consul of Hungary to Samoa. He expressed confidence that this new representation will further strengthen cooperation and people-to-people ties between the two countries. The Head of State also stated that Ambassador Nagy’s tenure would further strengthen existing friendship and cooperation between Samoa and Hungary.

H.E. Dr. Gábor Tamás Nagy has a distinguished career in public service, academia, and politics. He most recently served as Deputy Head of Mission and Consul at the Permanent Mission of Hungary to Vilnius, Lithuania (2022–2024). Over his extensive career, he has held prominent roles including as Mayor of Budapest’s 1st District (Buda Castle Municipality), Member of the Hungarian Parliament and its Foreign Affairs Committee, and Member of the Budapest City Council. Prior to his political career, he worked as a lecturer at Eötvös Loránd University and as a researcher at the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. Dr. Nagy holds degrees in Law and Sociology from Eötvös Loránd University and is fluent in English and German.

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PUBLIC AWARENESS ON THE DETECTION OF AMERICAN FOULBROOD (AFB) IN SAMOA

[PRESS RELEASE, 24 December 2025] – The Ministry of Agriculture & Fisheries (MAF) wishes to inform the public of the recent detection of American Foulbrood (AFB) in Samoa. The detection was reported in late November 2025 by the Samoa Apiculture Association (SAO), led by its President Papalii Richard Wetzell. The affected locations include Siusega and nearby villages, where AFB has been confirmed in several bee hives.

About American Foulbrood (AFB):

American Foulbrood is a highly contagious bacterial disease that affects honeybee colonies. It is caused by the bacterium Paenibacillus larvae, which produces extremely resilient spores capable of surviving in the environment for more than 20 years.

While AFB was first detected in Samoa in 2016, periodic emergence can occur due to a long-term persistence of these spores.

Eradication and Control Measures:

MAF, in collaboration with SAO, is implementing necessary eradication and containment measures to control and eliminate the disease. These measures include:

• Full spraying and disinfection of affected apiaries.

• Collection and on-site destruction of all infested hives through controlled burning.

• Surveillance and monitoring of surrounding areas to prevent further spread.

Public Advisory:

Members of the public, particularly families residing in the affected areas identified by SAO, are kindly requested to fully cooperate with MAF and SAO officers undertaking surveillance and eradication activities.

A formal notification has been issued through the Ministry of Women, Community & Social Development (MWCSD) via village Mayors to ensure that households permit access to their properties for surveillance and eradication activities.

At this stage, there is no cause for alarm. MAF and SAO are actively managing the situation, and are currently engaging only with households where AFB has been confirmed.

The community is encouraged to remain vigilant, follow guidelines provided by authorities, and support ongoing efforts to protect our honeybee industry.

For further information, please contact:

Matai’a Ricky Faatonu, email: ricky.faatonu@maf.gov.ws or phone: 7735353, Seumaloisalafai Afele Faiilagi, afele.faiilagi@maf.gov.ws or phone: 7591723

END.

Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries – Samoa

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FIFTY-SEVEN NEW COMMUNITY PROJECTS FUNDED UNDER THE SMALL GRANTS PROGRAMME

[PRESS RELEASE 18 December 2025 Apia, SAMOA] – The latest round of funding from the Small Grants Programme (SGP) – funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and implemented by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) – will now benefit 57 communities whose project proposals have been successful.

These new projects will be funded by the Government of Australia through the Samoa CARES programme, which is implemented in partnership with the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MNRE), and technical support from the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries (MAF).

A grant award ceremony and inception workshop was held on November 17, 2025 to help build these communities’ capacities in implementing their approved workplans and financial reporting.

One of the successful recipients, the village of Faletagaloa Safune in Savai‘i, welcomed the approval of their project saying it will contribute to environmental sustainability through the use of renewable solar energy. The project will also address critical lighting needs in areas of the village that are not currently connected to the main electricity grid, thereby enhancing community safety and overall wellbeing.

“We extend our profound gratitude to the Government of Australia, GEF, UNDP, and the SGP National Steering Committee for their leadership, commitment, and careful consideration in reviewing and approving our proposal. We look forward to the successful implementation of this project in partnership with all stakeholders,” said Tologataua Sioeli Alofaifo, Faletagaloa village and project representative.

A total of 113 applications were received during the Call for Proposals, reflecting widespread interest once again in the SGP mechanism.

“What has always stood out to the Australian High Commission is the way that the SGP (Small Grants Programme) projects innovatively combine elements of environmental protection with resilience building, economic opportunities, and social inclusion efforts – leading to holistic sustainable development outcomes,” said Claire McGeechan, Deputy High Commissioner,

Australia.

.

The selection of successful projects came after an intensive screening and approval process that was based on the technical assessment and recommendations from the SGP Technical Advisory Group and signed off by the National Steering Committee (NSC).

“I offer my warmest congratulations to the Community-Based Organizations that have been successful with their project proposals. Your success reflects your commitment, leadership, and your strong understanding of the needs of your communities and environment. These projects show that meaningful solutions to climate change and environmental challenges are best led by communities themselves,” said Paolo Dalla Stella, UNDP Officer-In-Charge.

END.

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JOINT PRESS RELEASE- METHAMPHATAMINE INTERCEPTED AT THE BORDER. 13th December 2025.

1. PASSENGER INTERCEPTED AT FALEOLO REGIONAL AIRPORT – Friday 12 December 2025

Ministry of Customs border officers through a targeted operation identified the suspect upon arrival on the last flight from American Samoa on Friday 12 December 2025 and initiated a body search pursuant to the legal provisions under the Customs Act. Police assisted in the search due to suspect’s reluctance to cooperate.

During the search of the suspect, officers discovered a small bag concealed inside the suspect’s underwear, containing five packages, all of which subsequently tested positive for methamphetamine weighing 141grams. The successful interception of the five concealed packages demonstrates the determination of criminals to smuggle illicit drugs into Samoa through any concealment method including hiding it in their private areas.

A 32-year-old male of Vaitele and Nuu has been charged with Possession of Narcotics (Methamphetamine) and Importation of Prohibited Goods. A conviction for possession of Class A narcotics (Methamphetamine) carries a penalty of Life Imprisonment.

2.6 KILOGRAMS OF METHAMPHETAMINE CONCEALED INSIDE A BOX OF CHICKEN – Saturday13 December 2025.

This morning Ministry of Customs and Revenue intercepted and discovered 6.032 kilograms of methamphetamine concealed inside a box of frozen chicken at the Matautu Wharf. The shipment originated from American Samoa and was targeted for inspection based on intelligence. Officers discovered two vacuum packed packages of methamphetamine concealed inside the frozen box of chicken. The concealment method demonstrates the continued attempts by criminals to smuggle illicit drugs into Samoa through ordinary goods.

A 59-year-old male of To’omatagi has been charged with Possession of Narcotics (Methamphetamine) and Importation of Prohibited Goods. A conviction for possession of Class A narcotics (Methamphetamine) carries a penalty of Life Imprisonment.

These two cases mark the seventh methamphetamine interception at Samoa’s borders this year since the historic 9.4kilograms of meth intercepted in January.

JOINT STATEMENT:

The Chief Executive Officer of Customs and the Commissioner of Police jointly expressed deep concern over the continued attempts to bring methamphetamine into Samoa.

They emphasized the devastating impact of the drug on families, particularly young people, noting that addiction is escalating and can lead to severe harm and even fatalities. Both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to protecting Samoa’s borders and ensuring the safety and well being of our people.

“Customs and Police remain committed in our determination to identify and dismantle drug networks. We will continue to work tirelessly to ensure all those responsible face justice and to ensure a safe, secure and prosperous Samoa”.

MCR and MPPCS cautioned individuals involved in these illegal activities to refrain from bringing drugs into Samoa.

Any individual or groups of people who persist, will face severe penalties including lengthy prison terms. These operations reflect the importance of close interagency collaboration in the fight against transnational crime as emphasized in its joint campaign, ‘‘Say NO to Illegal Drugs / Tetee atu i fualaau fa’asaina”.

Both leaders commended the professionalism and vigilance demonstrated by all officers involved, noting that the successful operations reflect the continued effectiveness of joint border security efforts.

The interceptions represent success in the ongoing fight against illicit drugs and highlight the importance of strong interagency cooperation in safeguarding Samoa.

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