Source: French to English Tester Published on: 2026-06-08
Source: The Conversation – in French– By Christian Ben Lakhdar, Professor of Economics, specialist, University of Lille
The quantities of drugs seized by the French law enforcement forces are increasingly large. However, these seizures do not mean that the fight against drug trafficking is a success. Indeed, consumption is also strongly increasing.
Every year, the French authorities announce record drug seizures. Cannabis, cocaine, ecstasy: the intercepted volumes reach historic levels year after year. For 2024,Thus, nearly 84 tons of cocaine have been seizedA: an unprecedented level! These figures are often presented as proof of the effectiveness of the fight against trafficking.Thus, the President of the Republic, the Ministers of the Interior and Justice often welcome operations combining arrests and seizures of narcotics.
In fact, these seizures demonstrate considerable work by law enforcement. Police, gendarmerie, and customs intercept massive flows, sometimes at the cost of complex operations, notably on the international traffic routes.
But a fundamental question is rarely asked: what do these figures tell us about the state and dynamics of drug markets?
Our recent worksinvite to think that they say very little about it.
Impressive seizures… faced with even larger markets
To understand what seizures represent, they must be compared to the actual scale of the markets.
We carried out a reconstruction work of the volumes consumed in France based on general population surveys, for three years: 2010, 2017, and 2023. For this last year, we estimate for example that approximately 400 tonnes of cannabis were consumed, 47 tonnes of cocaine, 8 tonnes of heroin, as well as tens of millions of ecstasy tablets.
These estimates, periodically carried out at the request of the Interministerial Mission for Combating Addictive Behaviors (Mildeca) and the French Observatory for Drugs and Addictive Behaviors (OFDT), are based on a relatively simple theoretical framework in which an attempt is made to reconstruct, for a given year, the quantities consumed and the expenses incurred by drug users to satisfy their consumption.We rely on thison the responses obtained in a series of surveys, the Survey on Representations, Opinions and Perceptions on Psychotropic Substances (Eropp) by the OFDT and the Public Health Barometer by Santé publique France, allowing the documentation of various consumption indicators (frequency, intensity, price, mode of consumption, etc.).
Strong assumptions are nonetheless necessary in order to work on our estimates. For example, opioid substitution treatments certainly reduce the heroin consumption of users; the question remains, by how much? Similarly, to date, little is known about the frequency and intensity of consumption of people using crack.
Despite these methodological difficulties, these estimates are integrated into the calculation of the gross domestic product (GDP) by the services of Insee, as recommended by Eurostat.
When seizures are compared to consumption estimates, they represent, depending on the year, 20 to 30% of the market for cannabis, 13 to 16% for heroin, and often less than 10% for ecstasy.
In other words, the majority of products circulate despite interception efforts.
The cocaine paradox: when seizures exceed the market
The case of cocaine is particularly revealing. In 2017 and 2023, the quantities seized in France may have exceeded the volumes estimated as consumed in the country. In other words, we have estimated that cocaine seizures could represent more than 100% of the cocaine market in France for these two years (this is notably indicated by the upper bound of the estimate on the graph above). This result may seem counterintuitive, but can be explained by at least two factors. On the one hand, traffickers anticipate seizures and their production can compensate for losses, without impacting the quantities consumed. On the other hand, France plays a particular role in international trafficking routes, meaning that a significant portion of the cocaine seized on its territory was not intended for the French market.
Due to its geographical position – notably through the Antilles and Guyana – France constitutes a gateway to Europe. The French law enforcement authorities thus intercept flows intended for other European countries. A portion of the seizures made in France actually benefits the entire continent.
Markets that constantly adapt
If seizures had a lasting effect on the markets, we would expect to see signs of strain: rising retail prices, reduced purity, scarcity of products. However, the results from our work and others show the opposite.
Between 2010 and 2023, retail prices as monitored by Ofast or OFDT remained generally stable, or even decreased. At the same time, the purity of the products, understoodsuch as the concentration of pure psychoactive molecule found in the seizures, has increased. Combined with high inflation during the period, these developments ultimately lead to an observed decrease in the relative prices of a gram of pure narcotics.
These elements suggest not only that the volumes of agricultural or synthetic production are enormous, but also that the supply quickly adapts to losses related to seizures. Criminal organizations diversify their routes, multiply entry points, and adjust their logistical strategies. When one flow is intercepted, others take over.
Rethinking drug policy indicators
In this context, seizures appear as an ambiguous indicator. They undoubtedly testify to the intensity of law enforcement actions. But they provide much less information about the actual availability of drugs. In other words, high seizures can coexist with expanding markets, as is the case for cocaine.
This discrepancy is due to the very nature of illicit markets, which operate like adaptive systems.Losses related to interceptions are included as a traffic cost, just like legal risks.. Criminal organizations anticipate risks, diversify their strategies, and exploit logistical opportunities on a European scale (of course the ports, but not only).
By focusing on the seized volumes, one might get the impression of increasing control, even though market indicators tell a different story: high availability, stable prices, and improving quality.
It is not a question of saying that seizures are useless. They must indeed play an important role, particularly to disrupt certain networks or intercept massive flows. But they are not sufficient, on their own, to sustainably reduce supply.
These results invite us to broaden the way we evaluate public policies. Rather than relying mainly on seizures, it would be necessary to jointly consider a set of indicators composed of prices, the purity of products circulating in France, their availability, and ultimately consumption dynamics.
Finally, these results remind us that drug markets far exceed national borders. The seizures made by the French law enforcement agencies — particularly for cocaine — are part of a European dynamic. They help limit the supply to several countries, even if their impact on the French market remains limited. This underscores the importance of a coordinated approach at the European level, rather than strictly national. The recent creation of aEuropean Union Agency for Drugsand of thefuture Customs Authority of the European Unionare a sign of a necessary evolution – but perhaps not sufficient.
Christian Ben Lakhdar received funding from the MILDECA PIRALAD program.
Sophie Massin received funding from the MILDECA PIRALAD program.
–ref. Drugs: despite record seizures, trafficking and consumption are strongly increasing –https://theconversation.com/drugs-despite-record-seizures-trafficking-and-consumption-in-strong-growth-281814