Source: French to English Tester Published on: 2026-05-01
Source: The Conversation – in French– By Laurence Charton, Sociodemographer, National Institute of Scientific Research (INRS)
With a synthetic fertility index (ISF) of1.33 children per woman in 2024, Quebec reaches its lowest level in its demographic history.
This figure, well below the generational replacement threshold (2.1), feeds into somerecurrent debateson the “decline of fertility” or the “demographic winter.” However, these expressions mask the complexity of the demographic dynamics at play and the political responses that should be adopted.
Sociologist and demographer, full professor at the National Institute of Scientific Research (INRS), I am interested in the social conditions that influence reproductive choices and behaviors, particularly the fact of having — or not having — children. It is from this perspective that I examine here what the decline in fertility in Quebec reveals, and what it invites us to collectively rethink.
Three distinct phenomena behind the idea of “decline”
The expression “decline in fertility” actually refers to three different demographic phenomena.
First, thepostponement of births. In Quebec, the average age at first motherhood exceedstoday 30 years, compared to 25 years in 1975, which mechanically lowers the annual fertility rates in the twenties age group, but does not necessarily reflect the final number of children per woman.
Then, theproportion of women without children. Thisphenomenon remains however relatively stable, notably in Quebec since the 1965 generation, thus contradicting the idea of a rejection of motherhood or a rise of the “non-desire for children”.
Finally, theaverage number of children per woman at the end of reproductive life. With a lower number of children for the current generations compared to previous ones, this is the phenomenon that today contributes the most – in Quebec and elsewhere – to the decline in fertility.
A persistent gap between desires and achievements
Thestudiesshow that in all Western countries, both women and men still wish to have an average of two children. However, most people do not realize their parenting plans. This persistent gap thus suggests that low birth rates do not come from the individuals themselves, but from their living conditions.
Reproductive aspirations have not decreased over the past decades, but structural conditions have deteriorated: expensive and scarce housing, rental insecurity, precarious job market, flexible and atypical working hours, and persistent inequalities in thesharing of parental responsibilities, especially negatively influence the decision of couples to have asecond or a third child. More specifically, these structural conditions are more likely to discourage women, who bear more responsibility than men for thedomestic and family charges
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In Quebec, theregions where fertility is higherare moreover those where access to housing is still generally easier, such as in Chaudière-Appalaches, Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean, or Abitibi-Témiscamingue. These regions are also those that most often allow couples to count on the support of their family network.
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What international comparisons show
In 2023, France records an ISF of 1.59 (thehighest in Europe), while the Nordic countries range between 1.43 and 1.49, and Quebec approaches Germany (1.38) and Canada as a whole.
These differences do not reflect gaps in fertility intentions, but rather political choices. Thecomparative studiesshow, for example, that child benefits and allowances do not have a lasting effect on fertility. The effective policies are those that combine accessible childcare services, well-paid and shared parental leave, affordable housing, and real work flexibility.
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Quebec has moreover already demonstrated this with a notable resurgence of thefertility at the turn of the 2000sduring the establishment of early childhood centers (CPE) and the Quebec parental insurance plan (RQAP). Before this momentum faded, these policies had succeeded in concretely reducing obstacles to parenting by lightening the financial and organizational burden on families. However, the gradual saturation of childcare services, the surge in housing costs, and the inability of public authorities to adapt their interventions to the new realities of households (single-parent families, atypical schedules, job insecurity) ultimately eroded the gains achieved, due to the lack of a political vision capable of supporting the profound evolution of family and social structures.
A question of conditions, not incentives
The fertility rate reflects the coherence between public policies and family aspirations.
When intentions remain stable, but achievements decline, it is a sign that material and organizational conditions are no longer keeping up. Relying on one-off incentives or slogans like“demographic rearmament”risk of having few effects, or even worsening the situation by rejecting the associated ideology (natalist rhetoric and national survival).
Supporting fertility thus involves talking about parental rights rather than duties, aiming for the fulfillment of desires rather than an increase in numbers, targeting both men and women equally, and also recognizing the right not to have children.
In other words, it is about enabling people who want children to have them under good conditions.
Fertility as a social indicator
Fertility is an indicator of a society’s ability to offer its members favorable conditions to project themselves into the future.
Under these conditions, the issue of the “decline in fertility” concerns less the decrease in the number of children itself, than the weakening of this capacity for projection. Society must provide conditions allowing people who want children to have them and to support them without jeopardizing their individual, marital, family, professional, or economic balance.
Laurence Charton received funding from SSHRC, FRQ, INRS, Secretariat for the Status of Women (Government of Quebec).
–ref. Fewer children, same desires: what does the decline in fertility reveal? –https://theconversation.com/fewer-children-same-desires-what-the-decline-in-fertility-reveals-277345