Source: French to English Tester Published on: 2026-03-31
Source: The Conversation – in French– By Daniel Béland, Professor, Political Science, McGill University
It is with some surprise that several Canadians have seen, in recent years, a secessionist movement emerge in Alberta. Accustomed to the separatist claims of Quebec, they may have been surprised to see a portion of the Alberta population consider the independence of the province.
However, despite a history of contesting federal power and a persistent feeling of alienation in the West — often linked to the perception of a Canada dominated by theinterests of Ontario and Quebec—, no serious secessionist movement had taken shape in Alberta until then. The province has never defined itself as a distinct nation, and no major political actor has put forward a structured independence project.
Where does this movement, seemingly sudden, which today takes the form of initiatives aiming to hold a referendum on independence, come from? Three elements help to understand its emergence.
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Historical feeling of alienation of the West
Since its creation as a province in 1905, Alberta has harbored a feeling of alienation shared, to varying degrees, by the Western provinces, fueled by the perception of a federal government unfavorable to its interests. This interpretation relies notably on thestruggles for control of resourcesnatural at the beginning of the 20th centuryeTo century and on theNational energy programfrom the first half of the 1980s.
Therise of the Reformist Partyin the context of the constitutional negotiations of the 1980s and early 1990s, reflected these feelings well: frustration with the perceived limited influence of the West within the federation and exasperation at the central role played by Quebec claims, notably during the negotiations surroundingthe Meech Lake Accordand the recognition of Quebec as a “distinct society.”
At that time, as the reformist slogan illustrated“the West wants in,”, the proposed solution was based on greater integration of the West into federal governance, notably through a Senate reform. Following the failure of this project, Alberta’s position shifted towards a logic favoring provincial autonomy rather than increased influence within the federation.
It is in this context that thefamous letter, signed by important Albertan conservative personalities, advocating the development of a firewall (firewall) around the province.
The years of Stephen Harper’s Conservative government (2006-2015) eased the regional feeling of alienation in the West, while Justin Trudeau’s Liberal governments (2015-2025) encouraged its reemergence. Their priorities, notably regarding climate and reconciliation, as well as their reluctance towards new pipeline projects and their more progressive orientation, contributed to rekindling tensions between Alberta and the federal government.
The deterioration of the Alberta economy from 2014, linked to the drop in oil prices, as well as the victory of Rachel Notley’s new New Democratic Party (NDP) in 2015, intensified the economic and political frustrations of the provincial right. This context, however, is not sufficient on its own to explain the emergence of secessionist claims.
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Trumpist populism
TheTrumpist populismoriginating from the first Trump presidency (2017-2021) contributed to transforming the nature of alienation in Alberta, by accentuating political polarization and distrust towards institutions, elites, and the media.
The close ties between Alberta and the United States, combined with the Covid-19 pandemic, have facilitated the spread of this populism within a part of the Alberta right. Although this type of populism exists in other provinces, its influence is particularly strong in Alberta, asituation particularly visible on social media.
As a result, Justin Trudeau’s federal Liberal governments have come to be portrayed as enemies of Alberta, determined to destroy the province’s economy through environmental laws and to eliminate Albertans’ freedom rights through various public health measures adopted during the pandemic.
This radicalization resulted in the emergence of new movements, including the Alberta Prosperity Project, which advocates for holding a referendum on the province’s independence. In this context, federalism reform gives way to a more fundamental questioning of the Canadian political order.
Political competition within the United Conservative Party
Ultimately, the internal dynamics of the United Conservative Party of Alberta also played a direct role in the process of registering the issue of the province’s independence on the political agenda.
To understand these dynamics, one must go back to the origins of the United Conservative Party. Founded in 2017, it resulted from the merger of the Wildrose Party and the Progressive Conservatives, with the explicit goal of reuniting a divided right wing, whose internal tensions had contributed to the NDP’s victory in 2015, similar to the creation of the Conservative Party of Canada a decade earlier.
Managed since October 2017by former federal minister Jason Kenney, the party came to power in April 2019 following the defeat of the NDP.
Initially very popular with activists, Kenney was quickly confronted during the Covid-19 pandemic with a populist faction originating from the Wildrose Party that became difficult to control and increasingly opposed to his leadership, notably due to his perceived authoritarian style and his handling of public health measures. In May 2022, he announced his resignation after a vote of confidence wherehe had barely received 51% supportmembers of his party.
A few months later, Danielle Smith, a populist figure originally from the Wildrose Party, becomes party leader and premier. Partly to avoid the fate of Kenney, she relies on populist policies focused on direct democracy (notably referendums), as well as on a marked ideological reaction against “wokeness” and federal environmental policies, sometimeswrongly presentedby a part of its base as a plot targeting Alberta and its oil sector.
Experienced politician, Smith seeks to maintain the support of the populist wing of her party, which had contributed to the downfall of Jason Kenney, notably by facilitating citizen-initiated referendums, including on independence, by lowering the required thresholds.
Although approximately thethree quarters of Albertans oppose it, support for independence, once marginal, is significantly higher among United Conservative Party voters due to the influence of its populist wing.
In this context, two petitions have been launched with the aim of holding a referendum on independence: one supported by its proponents, the other by its opponents, the first expected to gather the number ofsignatures required by the beginning of May. In February, Danielle Smith announced that this fall there will benine referendumsin Alberta concerning constitutional issues as well as immigration, a central theme of Trumpist populism. However, none concern independence, although the possibility of such a referendum remains open.
If a referendum on Alberta’s independence takes place this fall, the chances of victory for the pro-independence camp are slim, at least if we trust the polls and the uncertain international context that seems to reinforce the idea that independence is currently aparticularly risky bet, in this province, but also in Quebec.
However, in the current geopolitical context, thesimple holding of such a referendum, regardless of the outcome, raises significant geopolitical issues, notably concerning foreign interference. In this regard, the Trump administration causes concern, with some of its representatives having already met with Albertan separatistscome to Washingtonto promote their cause.
For many Albertan conservatives, the idea of a referendum is primarily intended to “send a message” to the federal government, based on the belief that thereferendum threatwas able to benefit politically in Quebec.
Difficult to demonstrate, this belief nonetheless helps to keep the referendum question on the agenda, in a province where actual support for independence remains relatively limited.
The authors do not work for, do not advise, do not hold shares in, and do not receive funds from any organization that could benefit from this article, and have declared no other affiliation than their research institution.
–ref. Why has independence become a political issue in Alberta? –https://theconversation.com/why-has-independence-become-a-political-issue-in-alberta-275729