Source: KOF Economic Institute
The Global Coincident and Leading Barometers rise in July. The Global Coincident Barometer increases in July after having remained virtually unchanged in the previous month, while the Global Leading Barometer rises for the second month in a row. Both indicators remain near the 100-point mark but move somewhat further above it, suggesting that global economic momentum is picking up slightly.
In July, the Global Coincident Economic Barometer rises 0.6 points to 104.5 points, the highest level since March 2022 (108.2 pts.), while the Leading Global Barometer rises 0.7 points, reaching 102.5 points. This month, all regions contributed positively to the aggregated result, except for the Western Hemisphere, which contributed slightly negatively to the Leading Barometer.
'For three consecutive months, the economic situation in the Western Hemisphere, Asia, the Pacific and Africa has clearly been above average, while Europe has only just reached average levels. Furthermore, last month's turn towards peace talks between the US and Iran has improved expectations for the upcoming months specifically in the Asia-Pacific region. Despite all the political turmoil, the world economy appears to be in better shape overall than many fear', comments Jan-Egbert Sturm, Director of KOF Swiss Economic Institute.
Coincident Barometer – regions and sectors
The 0.6-point rise in the Coincident Barometer in July results from a positive contribution of 0.4 points from the Western Hemisphere and 0.1 points from both Asia, Pacific & Africa and Europe. With this result, the Western Hemisphere records the highest level among the regions and the highest level since February 2022 (110.2 pts.). This is the only region that moves upward consistently since March this year, while the indicator for Asia, Pacific & Africa rises, but with fluctuations, and Europe moves sideways since April.
The coincident sectoral indicators recorded heterogeneous results in July. Services, Industry, and Economy (which is based on variables representing overall business and consumer evaluations) (aggregated business indicators added to consumer indicators) rise, while Construction and Wholesale and retail trade decline. The Industry indicator shows the highest level since March 2022 (110.1 points), and Construction loses momentum throughout 2026.
Leading Barometer – regions and sectors
The Leading Global Barometer rises 0.7 points in July, with the Asia, Pacific & Africa region contributing positively by 0.7 points. The contributions of Europe and the Western Hemisphere are minor, at +0.1 and -0.1 points respectively. Despite the adjustment this month, the Western Hemisphere indicator remains the highest among the regions, with 108.9 points. The Leading Global Barometer leads the world economic growth rate cycle by three to six months on average.
The leading sectoral indicators present heterogeneous results this month, with increases in Economy (aggregation of business and consumer indicators) and Industry, the latter recording the highest level since March 2022 (105.2 points). In contrast, Wholesale and retail trade, Services, and Construction decline. Economy is the only indicator below 100 points.