Source: French to English Tester Published on: 2026-07-08
Source: The Conversation – in French– By Enrico Nichelatti, Postdoctoral researcher, University of Luxembourg
Climate disasters are becomingincreasingly frequent and intensethroughout sub-Saharan Africa. Floods, droughts, heatwaves, and storms are no longer merely isolated environmental phenomena. They affect livelihoods, inequalities, public trust, as well as the relationships between citizens and the state.
Governments rely on taxes to fund schools, healthcare, infrastructure, and climate change adaptation policies. However, taxation does not rest solely on the enforcement of the law: it also depends on the trust that citizens place in the state’s ability to act effectively, fairly, and responsively in times of crisis.
Our research focuses on taxation, inequalities, public finances, and the effects of climate shocks in sub-Saharan Africa. Ina recent study, we have examined a still little-studied consequence of climate disasters in Africa: their impact on tax morale, that is to say, the willingness of citizens to voluntarily pay their taxes.
Tax civic responsibility is important, as many African countries struggle to mobilize sufficient national tax revenues. However,citizens are more inclinedTo pay their taxes when they trust authorities perceived as fair, efficient, and responsive.
We analyzed data from 25 sub-Saharan African countries between 2011 and 2021. We cross-referenced Afrobarometer survey data with records of climate disasters from theInternational Disaster Database (EM-DAT), which records emergency events around the world. Our study focused on five types of disasters: droughts, floods, extreme temperatures, storms, and wildfires.
We linked disasters with the respondents based on their place of residence and the date of the interview. We then used statistical models to examine the relationship between exposure to disasters and tax morale. The analysis also looked at the role of inequality and trust in public institutions.
The results reveal a complex situation. They show that disasters do not all affect tax morale in the same way. Droughts and extreme temperatures are associated with a decrease in tax compliance. Floods, on the other hand, are accompanied by slightly higher tax compliance. Repeated exposure to multiple climate-related disasters is associated with an overall decline in tax morale.
We have also found that disasters are associated with an increase in economic inequalities.When inequalities increase, trust in public institutionsdecreases. Compliance with tax obligations is also weakening. The results of our analysis support this argument by incorporating the dimension of climate disasters. Climate-related disasters exacerbate inequalities. This, in turn, reduces trust in public institutions and, ultimately, compliance with tax obligations.
Although climate disasters tend to reduce compliance with tax obligations, our analysis shows that the institutional environment can mitigate these effects. We focused particularly on Kenya, Benin, and South Africa. These three countries are very vulnerable to climate-related disasters and have adopted, over recent decades, legislation on disaster management and climate change mitigation.
This additional analysis allowed us to examine whether institutional disaster management frameworks can mitigate the effects of disasters on citizens’ fiscal attitudes. The results indicate that these institutional arrangements have considerably reduced, and in some cases even completely neutralized, the negative effects of natural disasters on tax morale.
These findings suggest that citizens react to the way governments manage and respond to disasters. When public authorities provide an effective response, the negative effects of disasters on fiscal morale are significantly mitigated.
Why climate disasters influence attitudes towards taxation
Taxation is not just an economic issue. It is also a social contract. Citizens are more willing to pay their taxes when they believe that governments use public resources fairly and provide protection in times of crisis.
Data from African countries suggest thattrustplays a decisive role in tax civism. The more citizens trust public institutions, the more willing they are to pay their taxes. This is especially true for local authorities and public bodies.
The quality of public service delivery also seems to be important. OneEffective service delivery tends to strengthen tax civism.
Previous studies show that climate disasters canto crumble this relationship in several ways.
Firstly, disasters destroy livelihoods and reduce incomes. This makes it more difficult for households to meet their basic needs. When families struggle to meet their essential needs, survival takes precedence and paying taxes becomes less important.
Secondly, disasters can reduce confidence in public authorities when interventions are perceived as slow, unequal, or politicized. The willingness to pay taxes decreases — even among taxpayers with the highest incomes — if citizens believe that emergency aid benefits only certain groups, or if corruption affects the distribution of aid.
Thirdly, climate shocks exert additional pressure on public finances. Governments may see their revenues decrease while having to face an increase in expenditures dedicated to reconstruction and emergency aid.
What influences the willingness to pay
Our study showed that the most significant negative effects on tax compliance came from droughts and extreme temperatures. This is not surprising. Droughts directly affect agricultural production, food security, and livelihoods in rural areas. Heat waves also reduce labor productivity and increase health costs, especially for vulnerable populations.
The floods yielded different results. In some cases, they were associated with a slightly higher tax civic-mindedness. One possible explanation is that the visible and effective interventions of public authorities during the floods, such as emergency aid and the restoration of infrastructure, can reinforce the perception of a responsive state.
Our research also suggests that the effects of climate disasters vary according to countries and communities. The negative effect on tax compliance is more pronounced in the poorest countries and in rural areas. In these regions, livelihoods depend more on climate-sensitive activities, such as agriculture. Additionally, rural households are often more exposed to floods and droughts. They also have more limited access to public services, financial protection, and state support.
In these contexts, repeated climate shocks can reinforce the impression that governments are unable or unwilling to protect vulnerable populations.
The role of climate policy
Climate change adaptation policies must address inequalities and strengthen citizens’ trust in public institutions. Failing that, the repeated climate shocks risk eroding their willingness to contribute to public finances.
Targeted social protection, equitable emergency aid in case of disaster, and transparent public spending are essential. The same applies to investments in the climate resilience of vulnerable communities.
Our findings suggest that climate disasters not only threaten economies and livelihoods. They can also harm the fiscal relationship between governments and citizens where inequalities are high and institutional trust is low.
Abrams Tagem, a tax research specialist, contributed to this article.
Enrico Nichelatti does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
–ref. Can climate shocks change citizens’ attitudes toward paying taxes? –https://theconversation.com/can-climatic-shocks-change-citizens-attitudes-towards-tax-payment-286999