Source: KOF Economic Institute
In June, the Global Coincident Barometer remained virtually unchanged, while the Leading Barometer increased compared with the previous month. The result partially offsets the decline observed in the previous month. Both indicators remain slightly above the 100‑point mark, signaling the continuation of a phase of moderate growth for the world economy.
In June, the Coincident Global Economic Barometer remains virtually stable, rising by 0.1 point from the previous month to 103.2 points, while the Leading Global Economic Barometer rises by 0.9 point to 101.2 points. The Coincident Barometer result is driven by a negative contribution from Asia, Pacific & Africa, offset by a positive contribution from the Western Hemisphere. In the Leading Barometer, the same regions move in opposite directions, with the positive contribution from Asia, Pacific & Africa outweighing the negative contribution from the Western Hemisphere.
'While both remain slightly above average, the leading indicator has been lower than the coincident indicator for the second consecutive month. From a regional perspective, this is solely driven by sentiment in the Asia-Pacific and African regions. There, the outlook is below average, probably reflecting the consequences of the energy shortage caused by the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The economies of the Western Hemisphere, on the other hand, do not appear to be overall negatively affected by this. In fact, over the past four months, the coincident indicator for this region has increased markedly, leaving other regions, particularly Europe, behind', comments Jan-Egbert Sturm, Director of KOF Swiss Economic Instiute, the latest results.
Coincident Barometer – regions and sectors
The 0.1‑point increase of the Coincident Barometer in June results from the negative contribution of 0.5 point from Asia, Pacific & Africa, while the Western Hemisphere contributes positively with 0.6 point. The Europe indicator remains stable this month. With this result, the Western Hemisphere records its highest level since April 2022 (108.0 points) and widens its gap across the regions. The Europe indicator is the only one remaining below the 100‑point mark, though only marginally.
Among the coincident sector indicators, only Construction rises clearly this month; Industry rises marginally, while Economy (representing overall business and consumer evaluations), Wholesale and Retail Trade, and Services fall. Despite this only marginal increase, Industry records the highest level among the sectors and its highest level since April 2022 (104.5 points).
Leading Barometer – regions and sectors
The Leading Global Barometer rises by 0.9 point in June, with Asia, Pacific & Africa contributing with 1.6 points, while the Western Hemisphere contributes negatively with 0.7 point and Europe remains stable in the month. Despite the decrease, the Western Hemisphere maintains the highest level across the regions, at 109.4 points.
The leading sector indicators show heterogeneous developments in the month, with rises in Economy, Industry, and Services, and decreases in Construction and Wholesale and Retail trade. The Economy indicator remains below the 100‑point mark, while Industry reaches its highest level since March 2025 (103.9 points).